Want To Bet Now On The Heisman Trophy Winner? Maybe Don’t. | FiveThirtyEight Skip to main content Jake Lourim is a freelance writer in Washington. He most recently worked for the Louisville Courier-Journal. @jakelourim  Get us in your inbox. Stories that resonated Get a newsletter of our most popular stories of the week. Subscribe Source linkRead More →

Welcome to a special edition of FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. sarahf (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): On Thursday evening, GOP Rep. Will Hurd of Texas’s 23rd Congressional District said that he would not seek reelection in 2020. Hurd is the sixth GOP representative to announce retirement in the past two weeks and the eighth so far in 2019. There were, of course, also a lot of GOP retirements in the lead-up to the 2018 midterm elections — at least 23, according to our count. So what’s happening this year? Should we expect another big wave of GOP retirements? AndRead More →

Embed Code <iframe frameborder=”0″ width=”100%” height=”180″ style=”margin:20px auto 25px;max-width:600px;” scrolling=”no” src=”https://fivethirtyeight.com/player/politics/27292306/”></iframe> After a first round of Democratic primary debates in which the conversation seemed to be guided by candidates further to the left, disagreements between moderates and progressives took center stage on the first night of the second round of debates. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what went down in Detroit on night one. FiveThirtyEight On The Road is brought to you by WeWork. You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes,Read More →

It takes an entire 25-man roster to make a winning baseball team — just ask the defending-champion Boston Red Sox. Sure, Boston had plenty of top-line talent at its disposal, but it also got key playoff contributions from the likes of Steve Pearce and Nathan Eovaldi, neither of whom was especially heralded when the Red Sox picked them up in midseason deals. Postseason history is littered with similarly unsung heroes from down the roster who step up in big moments. But what if teams didn’t need to rely on all of those non-star contributions? Instead, we want to find the opposite: teams that are tooRead More →

The Midwest has been drenched by rain and beset by floods. California is bracing for wildfires after several years of record-breaking burns. Hurricane season is just getting into gear in the Atlantic Ocean, which has been hit by more storms than usual over the past three years, and those storms have been above-average in intensity. Heat waves have been increasing across the country for decades. Just last weekend, New Yorkers were being warned to use less air conditioning to prevent blackouts — and to charge their phones for when the blackouts would inevitably happen. After three summers in a row of major natural disaster headlines,Read More →

You’re reading Significant Digits, a daily digest of the numbers tucked inside the news. Oliver Roeder is out, so the politics intern, Erin Doherty, is back with the digits. $1.82 million Three original videotapes of the Apollo 11 moon landing sold for $1.82 million in an auction this weekend. The videos, which have not been edited or modified since they were filmed 50 years ago, sold for more than 8,000 times what a NASA intern paid for them in 1976 at a government surplus auction. [CNN] 300 feet deep A missing American World War II warship has been found 5 miles off the coast ofRead More →

Embed Code <iframe frameborder=”0″ width=”100%” height=”180″ style=”margin:20px auto 25px;max-width:600px;” scrolling=”no” src=”https://fivethirtyeight.com/player/politics/27217506/”></iframe> Pennsylvania arguably tied Wisconsin as the tipping point state in 2016, according to FiveThirtyEight’s tipping-point calculation. And in the run-up to the 2020 presidential election, both parties are already taking the Keystone State seriously. President Trump held a rally there earlier this year, and former Vice President Joe Biden has headquartered his campaign in Philadelphia. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew heads to Philadelphia to explore how politics in the state have evolved since 2016 and what the math looks like for both parties in 2020. FiveThirtyEight On The RoadRead More →

You’re reading Significant Digits, a daily digest of the numbers tucked inside the news. 62 employees U.S. Customs and Border Protection announced that it is investigating 62 current and eight former Border Patrol employees after uncovering a closed Facebook group that scorned migrants and lawmakers. Depending on the outcome of the investigation, the agents could get counseling or face written reprimands, suspensions, demotions or firings. [The Associated Press] 241-241 “It was insane. It was pulsating. It was chaotic. It was breathtaking. It was cruel. It was unbelievable. It was extraordinary. It was epochal.” Such was the reaction of the cricket world to the World CupRead More →

Now that the MLB All-Star Game is over — with hometown favorite Shane Bieber winning MVP (despite not even being the most valuable pitcher on his own team) — the baseball world can finally turn its attention toward the stretch run of the season, in games that actually count. 2019 has given us some interesting twists already: For all the division races that have gone mostly according to expectations, there are several others that definitely haven’t, and the same goes for unexpected breakout players cropping up among the old standbys. So with a little help from our MLB Elo ratings and probabilities, let’s take aRead More →